Due to the ease of movement in the region, large populations and ideal conditions for the spread of infectious disease, Sub-Saharan Africa is a hot bed for emerging and re-emerging human diseases cause have caused immense suffering to the populous. The most recent occurrence of pathogenic spread was The Ebola Pandemic which is considered the largest to of its kind affecting multiple countries in West Africa and spreading as far as the United States in isolated cases. This spread cause widespread disruption to the region’s economy and production and transportation either came to a complete stand still or was adversely affected.
RGSMA’s approach is to tackle the issue of disease spread using mathematics to analyze variables and design measures to prevent the spread of disease proactively rather than reactionarily. For this to happen a fresh, innovative approach is needed that takes into account the nuances of the region local economy, customs, education levels etc.
In September 2014 some areas of West Africa had reported many as 4000 cases of Ebola infection within a 21-days period.
RGSMA Africa aims to use both conventional and specialised mathematical concepts to analyze the problem and come up with mathematical modelling to help pave the way forward and provide solutions. The aim is to motivate new approaches in mathematical biology that utilize the study of the spaces of knots on a compact connected manifold, an area which deals with algebraic and differential topological properties of spaces of paths and loops in manifolds.
Southern Africa in particular is an open region allowing free movement of people between countries, the use of deterministic theory to determine prevalence and incidence is questionable. We intend to apply advanced theories in stochastic analysis to estimate the rates of incidence and prevalence and to determine stability of the equilibrium points.
The crux of the problem is inherent to region’s appropriation of resources to build the knowledge base and skill set to tackle the issues that plague it most. The RGSMA programme is designed to nurture and accelerate high-level mathematics research in Sub-Saharan Africa. In doing so the hope is tackle problems that affect the region the most and create a safer, more productive future for the region.
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